BEE Partner, South Africa Economy Watch

The endogenous determination of the interest rate

In a boom, banks will lend more and will seek to create new deposits or issue additional notes. To support these activities, they will have to attract additional reserves. This will lead them to bid up interest rates, as they seek to attract idle reserves from one another and from hoards. In a slump, they will issue less and lend less, and will seek to shed reserves, lowering interest rates. In other words, while long-term average rates are determined by costs and competition, current interest rates reflect the balance of supply and demand in the market. They move pro-cyclically.

This is illustrated by a simple model. On the one hand, the rate of interest (in relation to the rate of profit), is likely to affect investment inversely, and investment, in turn, will have an impact on prices and employment. Changes in prices and employment will call for changes in reserves. Read the rest of this entry »

Reserves

The deposits and currency created by the Federal Reserve are the reserves of the modern system. It would seem that if the Fed could control the amount of these reserves, it could thereby limit the ability of banks to lend, and thus control their ability to create deposits. By controlling reserves, the Fed could control the total quantity of money. As we saw earlier, real reserves did constrain banks. It has seemed plausible, and monetarists everywhere have believed, that modern, nominal reserves could provide a similar constraint. But central banks all around the world, including the Federal Reserve, have tried to exercise such control, most recently in the late 1970s and early 1980s, and, in virtually every case, their attempts have failed. Read the rest of this entry »

Now let us look at modern money, which is not anchored in gold or precious metals, and consider how money that is purely a matter of convention or fiat obtains and keeps its value. In the older economy, money was anchored to metal that had ‘intrinsic value.’ Such money is an asset to its possessor, but it is no one’s liability. This connection is broken in modern systems in which money has no intrinsic value. It is an asset to its possessor, and a liability to its issuer. Between these, we have a system in which paper money and bank deposits are loosely tied to intrinsic value by being convertible into bullion, plate or coins. Such money is also a liability to its issuer. The implications of the change from money of intrinsic value to modern money are striking. Read the rest of this entry »

The government budget tends to move counter-cyclically. In a slump, incomes will be reduced and spending curtailed, so tax collections will fall, but welfare and related spending to support the unemployed will tend to rise. Other government budget items are likely to be unaffected. Hence, the overall effect will be to throw the budget into deficit. By contrast, in a boom, tax collections will rise and welfare spending will tend to decline, so a surplus will tend to emerge. In short, in an economy with demand-based cyclical fluctuations, the central government budget will tend to move in a counter-cyclical fashion.

Now consider the monetary implications of deficits and surpluses. A deficit arises when the government spends more than it receives in taxes; this means a net increase in money in the system. Such money will appear as excess reserves in the banking system. If allowed to remain, it will drive down interest rates. Looked at another way, it will drive up security prices. A surplus is just the opposite; it arises when the government spends less than it takes in, and it creates a reserve deficiency, tending to force interest rates up. Read the rest of this entry »

In the older economy, the monetary system did provide a constraint, and this constraint helped stabilize the economy; changes in the value of reserves worked in conjunction with the price mechanism. By contrast, the modern monetary system offers no constraint, and, in fact, inflations and asset price booms are self-financing, since price rises increase the value of collateral, on the one hand, and raise the value of bank capital on the other. The modern monetary system also allows for a creative use of the central government’s budget. The shift in money from real to nominal, following the changes in technology, has brought a new role for the government. The government budget is both much larger and plays a stabilizing role in the way it affects the economy. Read the rest of this entry »

William Vickrey (1996: 10) argued, ‘The “deficit” is not an economic sin but an economic necessity. Its most important function is to be the means whereby purchasing power not spent on consumption, nor recycled into income by the private creation of net capital, is recycled into purchasing power by government borrowing and spending. Purchasing power not so recycled becomes non-purchase, non-sales, non-production and unemployment.’ In an endogenous money world, there can be no crowding out unless the monetary authority stops lending.

The recent Asian financial troubles and IMF intervention have once again given credence to the view that increasing levels of debt will eventually lead to lenders refusing to take up further public borrowing. Usually this is cast in terms of countries with low levels of capital that have major private debt denominated in a foreign currency used to finance imports. Crises occur when the export revenue, which services the debt, falls for one reason or another. But none of these countries would have any trouble issuing debt in its own currency. Read the rest of this entry »